2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

  • Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.
  • Trended with Microsoft Excel.
  • Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.
  • The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

  • In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:
    • Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.
    • They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.
    • When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.
    • Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.
  • High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.
  • The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39%
Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

 

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56%
Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17%
Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

There is a seesaw going on in the market between resales and new construction. Right now new construction is offering a quality product at a slightly higher price. From our experience, the consumer is recognizing the value and will to pay that premium.

2019 market outlook for Lee County sales by year built 2017 versus 2018

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

2019 market outlook for Lee County sales by year built December 2017 versus December 2018

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

2019 market outlook for Lee County sales count patterns 2017 versus 2018

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

2019 market outlook for Lee County bubbles of sales activity 2017 versus 2018

The bubbles of sales activity by price showed the market is essentially the same year over year with the difference in price. This is essentially inflation. Below, is the chart for December 2017 versus December 2018.

2019 market outlook for Lee County bubbles of sales activity by price december 2017 versus december 2018

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44%
Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79%
Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29%
Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99%
Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06%
Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11%
Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67%
Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47%
Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 market outlook for Lee County pricing since 2001

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 market outlook for Lee County pricing since 2009

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

2019 market outlook for Lee County pricing since 2009

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00%
Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73%
Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00%
Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91%
Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08%
High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

 

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by %  year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00%
Short Sale  % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16%
Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

 

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 market outlook for Lee County supply and demand this chart shows the correlation on average price and the sales counts

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

4

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5
Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

6

Alva

80 164 14 6
North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

6

Estero

807 1425 119 7
Bokeelia 67 108 9

7

Matlacha

21 32 3 8
St. James City 125 179 15

8

 

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8
Punta Gorda 51 72 6

9

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

11

Sanibel 343 347 29

12

 

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

4

33976

114 335 28 4
33907 159 447 37

4

33905

224 615 51 4
33991 302 828 69

4

33974

121 330 28 4
33909 322 878 73

4

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

5

33967

219 526 44 5
33936 236 563 47

5

33919 462 1102 92

5

33917

286 631 53 5
33966 167 366 31

5

33914

726 1517 126 6
33928 512 1052 88

6

33913

478 970 81 6
33901 194 388 32

6

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

7

33903

248 447 37 7
33916 220 389 32

7

34135

832 1389 116 7
34135 832 1389 116

7

33908

816 1355 113 7
33922 67 109 9

7

33956

126 179 15 8
33955 51 72 6

9

33931

366 468 39 9
34134 569 581 48

12

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

15

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

The negative price pressure from the last cycle was driven by distressed sales. This was the aftermath of a mania. We prepare a report each month about this, here is a link to the December 2018 Lee County Florida foreclosure report.

December 2018 Lee County Florida foreclosure report Lis Pendens since 2018

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

  • Most agents can not see past their own financial status.
  • There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

  • 2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

  • 3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

  • That may be hard to beat.

2019 market outlook for Lee County sales counts by the month for 20187 showing what a great year 2018 was

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

  • There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.
  • 843 have sold in the last 365 days.
  • That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 market outlook for Lee County single family permits pulled in cape cortal florida by the month

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 market outlook for Lee County Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 market outlook for Lee County Possible over leverage points

This chart shows the growth of residential debt, notice at the time of this chart, it has not surpassed the levels of the last cycle. I not saying it will not correct in the next correction but this is illuminating as to potential levels and intensity of correction. 

 

2019 market outlook for Lee County Possible overleverge points residential debt

 

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

  • 2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.
  • It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.
  • In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.
  • We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.
  •  This market does not share the same modalities of the 2006 crash. If and when a correction happens, it will be different in intensity and duration. Using the last correction as a playbook can be problematic.
  •  December 2018 was pretty awful from a statistical point of view, January 2019 appears to be on the same path from a year over year perspective. Is this a trend or just the economy playing wait and see with the Macro pictures trials and tribulations?

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

 Steelbridge Realty LLC  is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting-edge marketing techniques and data-driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever-changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.

 

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

source https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/
Source: https://steelbridgerealtyllc.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county_28.html

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